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S P E C I A L : S O F T W A R E
interview
focus: What about testing and sim-
ulation?
Deichmann: That’s a huge driver and
stands for roughly 40 % of the mar-
ket. The paradox: the better the car
industry manages – by testing, sim-
ulating and validating in advance to
create good products before they
are integrated into the car – the
smaller the overall market for au-
tomotive software.
focus: Is ADAS/AD still a major
driver? After the big projections
a couple of years ago it seems qui-
eter now.
Deichmann: Yes, ADAS and AD
together with OTA updates are
a crucial driver, when it comes to
centralization of control units, sep-
aration of hardware and software
etc. Though infotainment and user
experience are more visible to the
customer, they are not that compli-
cated from a technology point of
view. And there is safety and secu-
rity, the “mean brother” of ADAS,
OTA and co., which requires a lot
of attention and innovation. The
most secure vehicle in recent years
was probably the VW Golf 1, be-
cause it had hardly any code inside.
focus: We talk about cars as smart-
phones on wheels. But how ma-
ny operating systems for cars will
be left at the end of the transfor-
mation?
Deichmann: I would distinguish be-
tween three types. With In-Vehi-
cle-Infotainment (IVI) domains,
there is a clear trend to Android
platforms – except in China. Sec-
ond, in the field of so-called high-
performance operating systems
where you got a lot of AI, high-
speed combination of sensors, etc.
I think that we will have two or
three dominant operating systems.
And the third type is classical au-
tomotive: control units, powertrain
and much more, where we will have
four or five platforms that partially
already exist today.
focus: What is the relationship be-
tween OEMs, automotive suppli-
ers and genuine software firms in
this development? Will there be a
“winning model“ that everyone
else tries to copy?
Deichmann: There will not be “one”
model, it will be a variety of mod-
els. A volume car maker whose cus-
tomer wants user experience, but is
not very much into ADAS, needs a
completely different strategy than a
premium car maker who claims to
be at the forefront of technology.
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Automotive software market expected to grow by +9.2 % p.a.
Total automotive software1 market
USD billions
Total ——————————————— +9.2%
Powertrain & Chassis ———————— +0.8%
Body & Energy ——————————— +9.5%
CAGR
2019-2030
ADAS & Highly automated driving——— +11.1%
Operating system & Middleware — —— +11.6%
1) Software incl. function development, integration and verification/validation
Source: McKinsey Center for Future Mobility
Infotainment, Connectivity,—————— +8.9%
Security, Connected services
231
2019
25
2030
323
427
12
26
38
33
49
2019
31
63
82
14
18
41
32
13
25
2030